Is the Bradley Effect Effectively Debunked?
According to the Associated Press, the Bradley Effect didn’t rear its head last Tuesday.
The Bradley Effect is the phenomenon of the discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election results. Voters tell pollsters they’re undecided or that they’ll vote for the black candidate, but choose the white candidate come election day. Whites who don’t want to seem racist may say they’re voting for the black guy but have no intention of doing so.
Pre-election polls were “generally accurate” in reflecting voters’ true intentions. The AP contends that the Bradley Effect, if a factor in the election, should have overstated Obama’s or understated John McCain’s votes, but that wasn’t the case. Obama won 52 to 46 percent. Various polls showed Obama winning 51 to 43 percent, 53 to 42 percent, and 51 to 42 percent.
Is the Bradley Effect thoroughly debunked? Regardless, one thing has remained consistent. An overwhelming majority of blacks vote for Democrats (95 percent chose Obama).
(Photo source: Real Clear Politics)
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John
Wednesday, November 12th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
Many people (including myself) were holding their breath hoping that the Bradley Effect would not be the case in this election. I am happy to see that it was not the case.
John
eventual.lawyer@gmail.com